Jeff Passan, ESPNAug 27, 2024, 11:00 AM
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- ESPN MLB insider
Author of "The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports"
In a little more than two months, the frenzy begins. Juan Soto, having just turned 26 years old, will be a free agent. The last time a hitter of Soto's caliber reached the open market at such a young age, following such an exceptional season, came nearly a quarter-century ago. And on Dec. 11, 2000, Alex Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $252 million contract, doubling the previous record for total value of a deal.
Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract offer from the Washington Nationals when he was 23 years old to get to the moment at which he'll soon arrive, and he has spent the 2024 season addressing every nit at which a team might pick. He has thrived in his first season as a New York Yankee. He has set a career high with 37 home runs (and 30 games remain in the season). He still walks more than anyone and strikes out less than almost anyone with his sort of power. He's an above-average defensive outfielder by all publicly available metrics.
He is the platonic ideal of a free agent. And just as Shohei Ohtani last year created a cadre of dreamers around the game wondering if maybe, just maybe he'd choose their organization, the prospect of Soto coming on board is similarly tantalizing.
"When it comes to the outfielder from across our borough," New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor said, "he's having a fantastic year and I hope he goes out there and breaks every record out there when it comes to getting paid. If it's with us, it'll be fantastic. He'll help us a lot."
Everything around Soto this winter is destined to be big: the hype, the salesmanship, the jockeying, the intrigue and, ultimately, the money. And it's the perfect theme as we dive into the Soto sweepstakes as well as the fortunes of the best players expected to be available alongside him: What, according to nearly two dozen sources queried about this winter, are the biggest storylines in a free agent period that begins with Soto but certainly doesn't end there.
Biggest everything: Juan Soto
It's worth saying this about every free agency to come this winter: The market has not established itself and will not for months, so speculation about where anyone will go or what anyone will get paid is just that.
Now, doing so with the aid of logic and history helps increase the likelihood such speculation proves correct. And it's with that knowledge -- the recognition that age, as much as skill, drives baseball free agency, and Soto's combination of both is singular -- the industry agrees the floor for his contract will be $500 million.
It will go higher, though, and when it does, that number will frighten away a vast majority of teams. Some of them could afford it; many will choose not to. This is the history of free agency. There are ultimately at most a handful of spenders for the biggest free agents. In Soto's case, the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and both Los Angeles teams could likely afford him but are long shots to make a real push. Seattle could use him but will be scared off by the money. At the end of the day, high-ranking front office and ownership-level sources believe the winter for Soto is going to play out like this: Yankees vs. Mets.
Behemoth vs. behemoth.
The most enthralling free agency battle imaginable.
The Yankees cannot lose Soto. If they win their first championship since 2009, they can't possibly let him go, and if they lose early in the postseason they'll panic about how much worse it would be without him. Yet there stand the Mets, themselves in need of a middle-of-the-order bat, owned by a man in Steve Cohen who understands data better than any of his peers. And the data says that once a player hits 30, his career will likely regress. So to get a superstar for four full seasons before he turns 30 -- and do it without having to give up players in a trade -- makes him the consummate Mets target.
There will be months and months to discuss every intricacy of Soto's free agency, but for now, consider these career numbers going into free agency:
Biggest ace attraction: Corbin Burnes
The 29-year-old right-hander is the consensus No. 2 player in the free agent class. Unlike with Soto, whose market will land him the second-most guaranteed money ever behind Shohei Ohtani's $700 million contract -- and the largest guarantee when adjusting Ohtani's deal down for its massive deferrals -- Burnes enters in a well-established place as the pitcher elite enough to warrant at least a seven-year contract.
That has tended to be the threshold in free agency between excellent pitchers and the very best. The three finest of the 21st century -- Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer -- all signed for seven years. Perhaps the most consistent starter this decade, Aaron Nola, got seven last year.
Well, since 2021, only Nola and Logan Webb have thrown more innings than Burnes' 722. He is in the 90th-plus percentile among pitchers in practically every category that matters in that time: strikeout minus walk rate, home runs allowed, batting average against, ERA, fielding independent pitching, soft-contact rate, hard-contact rate.
And while Burnes' strikeout rate is down to 8.2 per nine innings this season -- his fourth consecutive year with a lower K rate -- the quality of his stuff continues to rate elite in pitching models and his velocity actually has ticked up. Burnes turns 30 in October, and while he has had an August to forget -- over four starts, his ERA jumped from 2.47 to 3.28 -- teams are far from souring.
This class is deep with veteran starting pitchers. It's a group that includes Nick Pivetta, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, among several sure to draw interest. But baseball is a game with almost no aces. One is available. And he's primed to seek that eighth season and reap the third-largest deal ever for a pitcher, behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter and Gerrit Cole in 2020.
Back from an elbow injury and pitching well, Cole also figures into this winter's free agency with a strong expectation that he will opt out of the final four years and $144 million of his nine-year, $324 million contract with the New York Yankees. But any fear that Cole will find greater riches elsewhere can be allayed simply: If he chooses to opt out, the Yankees can nullify it by adding a 10th year at $36 million onto his original deal.
Biggest intrigue: Roki Sasaki
There has been widespread speculation about whether Sasaki, the 22-year-old phenom from Japan, will be posted to MLB this winter. The speculation is filled with contradictory information that does not reflect the current state of Sasaki's plans. Here, from domestic and international sources, is what ESPN learned about where Sasaki stands.
1) Sasaki wanted to enter the posting system, which allows for the transfer of Japanese players to MLB, last offseason. He would have forfeited hundreds of millions of dollars in a potential future contract. Any player under 25 years old who gets posted is subject to international signing restrictions, which would limit Sasaki's potential signing bonus to less than $10 million, as happened when Ohtani was posted by the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters at 23. Sasaki's team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, said no.
2) Sasaki's relationship with the Marines was damaged accordingly, and he wants to leave again. The Marines plan to decide whether to put Sasaki in the posting system after the season. Were they to do so before 2026, they would receive a posting fee of less than $2 million. By contrast, the Orix Buffaloes received a $50.6 million fee from the Dodgers on the deal for Yamamoto, who was 25.
3) Sasaki is in the midst of arguably the worst year of his career but still has posted elite numbers (2.45 ERA, 91 strikeouts, 25 walks, two home runs in 77 innings) and impressed scouts with his stuff, particularly a triple-digit fastball and devastating splitter. Evaluators still believe Sasaki is one of the most talented pitchers in the world, but he did miss time earlier this season because of a right arm injury.
In short: No one knows whether Sasaki will be posted. Lotte controls the entire process and can keep Sasaki through the 2026 season if it so desires. The decision should come around mid-November, following the conclusion of the Nippon Professional Baseball season. If Sasaki is posted, the mania will not resemble last year with Yamamoto, when seven large-market teams climbed over one another for his services. With the difference in international bonus money available to teams negligible, the differentiator in Sasaki's case would not be money. All 30 teams will scramble to find out what it is if the most intriguing player this winter finds his way to MLB..
Biggest skepticism: Pete Alonso
Since Alonso's debut with the Mets in 2019, he has hit 219 home runs. The only player with more is Aaron Judge at 223. Alonso's 569 RBIs lead the big leagues during that stretch; his 814 games played rank third. His weighted on-base average places him directly behind Rafael Devers and Jose Ramirez and ahead of Matt Olson and Ketel Marte. It is fair to say that over the past six years, Alonso has been one of the best 20 hitters in baseball. Even this year, when his numbers have receded some, his wOBA is 34th in MLB.
So how does an elite offensive player breed skepticism? His position. (First base.) And how those who occupy it age. (Not well, typically.) And his defense there. (Suboptimal.) And its value compared to other positions. (Much less.) And his cost. (He turned down more than $150 million last year.) And how that compares to his peers. (Freddie Freeman, arguably the best of them, received $162 million over six years.)
And yet here's the truth about Alonso: In a league where so few players can hit, he is consistently among the best at doing so, and 30 teams will not ignore that in free agency. Perhaps Alonso won't get paid $200 million -- his batted-ball profile this year has regressed marginally -- but any notion that he's going to fall through the cracks ignores the comfort any team gets putting a slugger with superior bat control into the middle of its lineup.
Biggest monopoly: Willy Adames
Adames strolls into free agency in about as good a position as any non-Soto player. Adames turns 29 this week. His batted-ball profile has improved in every way this season: quality of contact, swing decisions and expected production. And best of all, Adames plays shortstop.
Lest we not forget how teams treat shortstops during contract negotiations. Of the 20 largest contracts in MLB history, half have gone to players who have spent regular time at shortstop in the major leagues. And while Adames won't reach that echelon, he's got a clear advantage in the marketplace. Ha-Seong Kim is capable of playing shortstop, but teams see his greatest value in his versatility -- the ability to man all three infield skill positions.
Which leaves Adames as the main solution for shortstop-hungry teams. Certainly if Toronto tries to trade Bo Bichette, some of Adames' leverage is lost. As it stands, though, the success Adames found in Milwaukee should be enough to sustain him into nine figures.
Biggest chance to gain before season's end: Max Fried
Fried's consistent excellence is too frequently taken for granted. Of all the pitchers with at least 800 innings since Fried's 2017 debut, here are the ERA leaders:
Jacob deGrom: 2.41
Clayton Kershaw: 2.71
Justin Verlander: 2.76
Max Scherzer: 2.82
Max Fried: 3.11
Chris Sale: 3.16
Gerrit Cole: 3.16
Blake Snell: 3.21
Shane Bieber: 3.22
Corbin Burnes: 3.26
The only ones in that group not to win a Cy Young Award are Fried and Sale (this year's NL favorite). It's elite company. And that's because Fried has been an elite pitcher. He's not a strikeout artist like many of his ERA cohorts -- he generates ground balls and limits home runs. It's not the sexiest. But it's effective. And it's replicable as he ages.
The issue is, Fried's walk year has been good, not great. His stuff is not grading well in pitch models. His walks are up. Most of all, though, he hasn't stayed healthy. The biggest ding against him regards his workload. His career-high innings total is 185.1.
So what would behoove Fried? Stay healthy and shove. For all of September and as much of October as Atlanta lasts. Burn it into the minds of executives and owners: When it really matters, Max Fried is there to carry a rotation. And if he does that, the seven-year echelon could be his to join.
Biggest redemption opportunity: Blake Snell and Matt Chapman
After a mess of a winter that saw both flail in the market for months and sign contracts well below expectation, Snell and Chapman will almost certainly opt out of those deals and chase the sorts they wanted their first time in free agency.
Over his past nine starts, Snell has allowed a 1.30 ERA, struck out 75 in 55⅓ innings and limited hitters to a .111/.208/.161 line. In other words, the reigning NL Cy Young winner is turning entire major league lineups into the equivalent of pitchers trying to hit. Further, after never having thrown even eight innings in a start, Snell went nine against Cincinnati earlier this month -- and didn't allow a hit.
Chapman, in the meantime, is more or less the same player he has always been: good offensively and spectacular defensively at third base. Why that didn't translate into a better contract last year remains curious considering the number of teams that could really use a third baseman: the Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees. They should all at least be making calls this winter, and that's not even counting the San Francisco Giants, who could lose Chapman, or the Houston Astros, who have their own question this winter at third base.
Biggest decision: Alex Bregman
No longer is Bregman putting up MVP-caliber numbers. He's 30 years old now and has settled into a comfortable slugging area around .450. His swing decisions, elite in past years, have flipped this year, and he's striking out more and walking significantly less. For a short third baseman, none of that is trending in the right direction.
Still, as long as his elbow issues -- Bregman referred to them as "gremlins" -- don't force a move off third base, he'll have plenty of interest from other teams. Bregman is regarded as a winning player, even as he's one of the last from Houston's cheating scandal to remain in an Astros uniform. Teams admire his attitude and moxie. One general manager who would like to sign Bregman said: "He would completely change our clubhouse for the better."
The big decision for Bregman is simple: Would he leave Houston? It was his refuge after the scandal. Houston embraced Bregman, always cheered him, buoyed him in some of his lowest times. Perhaps, then, this is a better question for the Astros: Does owner Jim Crane want to keep Bregman, or would he rather spend the nine figures signing outfielder Kyle Tucker to an extension and let Bregman walk like he did Carlos Correa and George Springer?
Biggest surprises: Anthony Santander and Christian Walker
From a Rule 5 pick to one of the most feared power hitters in baseball, Santander's ascent has been as steady as it is incredible. He made the leap from High-A with Cleveland in 2016 to the big leagues in 2017 and '18 before getting some more minor league seasoning. Santander finally got full-time at-bats in 2022 and rewarded Baltimore with 33 home runs, and this season he's two home runs away from joining Mickey Mantle, Chipper Jones, Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira, Lance Berkman, Ken Caminiti and Todd Hundley as the only switch hitters with at least 40 home runs in a season.
Santander turns 30 in December, and his defense in right field is iffy, and he won't ever hit for high average. But when the home run leaders in MLB go Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Santander, the abundance tends to outweigh the deficiencies.
Walker is older than you'd expect, the consequence of Baltimore never giving him the sort of shot he warranted and Arizona not committing to him as its full-time first baseman until 2019, when he was 28. Now 33, Walker is one of 32 players over the past three seasons to carry an adjusted OPS at least 25% better than league average. Add to that the best first-base glove in all of baseball, and Walker is going to get paid by a very smart team this winter.
Biggest perception change: Jack Flaherty and Teoscar Hernandez
One-year contracts are always risky. Particularly so for pitchers. Flaherty, who turns 29 in October, has worked himself into a tremendous position by taking a one-year, $14 million deal with Detroit last winter instead of chasing more guaranteed money at multiple seasons. His performance since joining the Dodgers at the trade deadline has allayed concerns about back issues hindering his pitching. His clubhouse presence in Detroit and Los Angeles earned strong reviews. With excellent numbers across the board -- from a 3.00 ERA to a 162-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 129 innings -- Flaherty has thrust himself into $25-million-per-year territory on a multiyear deal.
When the multiyear market didn't offer Hernandez what he sought, he opted for a one-year, $23.5 million deal with the Dodgers and has returned to his consistent, slugging self. Even though Hernandez has always been a steady performer, the nightly highlights of him plating Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freeman resonate more than previous stops in Seattle and Toronto. Whether it's in Los Angeles or elsewhere, Hernandez, who turns 32 in October, will get that multiyear deal this winter and slot into the middle of whatever lineup is lucky enough to have him.
Biggest pillow candidates: Walker Buehler and Shane Bieber
At one point, Buehler and Bieber looked like two gems in an all-time free agent pitching class. But their elbows didn't cooperate. Buehler needed a second Tommy John surgery, and his fastball, for so long his biggest asset, hasn't returned to form since he came back in May. Bieber had his Tommy John surgery in April and won't step on a big league mound again until next season.
For Buehler, a one-year deal makes plenty of sense to find the version of himself who carved lineups and then hit free agency again to cash in after the 2025 season. Bieber's case depends on his rehabilitation. Should he prefer to take 15-plus months returning from the injury, teams could offer him two choices: a low-guarantee, one-year deal, or a two-year deal for significantly more money. If Bieber will be game ready early in 2025, on the other hand, he could reestablish his value next year and hit the market again as a 30-year-old with the elbow-reconstruction cobwebs shaken off.
Biggest mystery: Gleyber Torres
Absolutely no one will be surprised if Torres leaves the New York Yankees and fulfills the promise he showed five years ago when he whacked 38 home runs in his age-22 season and looked the part of a future MVP. Absolutely no one will be surprised if Torres leaves the Yankees and continues his descent into pumpkinhood that has reached its nadir this season, either.
The conundrum of Torres has vexed the Yankees for the past half-decade. They see the power, the potential. They also see the inconsistent swing and bordering-on-wretched defense. They try to help. Nothing works. And yet at the same time, some who have worked with Torres wonder if simply leaving New York and hearing new voices will help unlock what the Yankees have been unable to.
Though a one-year deal is the likeliest route for Torres, the possibility of a team guaranteeing multiple years at a reasonable cost certainly exists. If you hit 38 homers as a middle infielder at 22 and hit free agency at 28, you're bound to have fans.
Biggest raise: Jurickson Profar
When Profar signed a one-year, $1 million contract with San Diego on the eve of spring training, it barely registered. After all, Profar had been released in 2023 by the woebegone Colorado Rockies, not exactly a promising sign for one's impending free agency.
Six months later, it's the deal of the winter for the Padres and the precursor for Profar to finally get paid like someone who once upon a time was the game's best prospect. Profar's first-half breakout has not abated, and as the final month of the season beckons, he remains the NL leader in on-base percentage, ahead of Freeman, Ohtani, Ozuna and Kyle Schwarber. Profar is hammering the ball, too, ranking 10th in slugging percentage in the NL. In total, Profar is having an offensive season right on par with Bryce Harper's. He could spend next season making 15 times what he is this year.
